Observations

Any time you place money in the hands of strangers, don’t expect a return on investment, much a return of investment. Cryptocurrencies are much like the US dollar; A fiat currency with no set value and now getting a devaluation.

Crypto Wipeout Deepens to $640 Billion as Ether Leads Declines

The cryptocurrency bear market plumbed a fresh 10-month low on Monday as Bitcoin’s biggest rival tumbled and U.S. regulators suspended trading in two securities linked to digital assets.

Ether, the second-largest virtual currency, slumped 11 percent from its level at 5 p.m. New York time on Friday, according to Bloomberg composite pricing. Bitcoin declined 2.4 percent, while the market capitalization of digital assets tracked by CoinMarketCap.com shrank to about $197 billion — down almost $640 billion from its January peak.

Cryptocurrencies have declined for five of the past six weeks amid concern that a broader adoption of digital assets will take longer than some had anticipated. That worry was underscored over the weekend after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission temporarily suspended trading in two exchange-traded notes linked to cryptocurrencies and Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin told Bloomberg that the days of explosive growth in the blockchain industry have likely come and gone.

“The temporary suspension of these products led to an initial knee-jerk reaction,” said Ryan Rabaglia, head of trading at cryptocurrency dealing firm OSL in Hong Kong. “But ultimately, it’s just another obstacle for the market to overcome.”

Read more: Crypto Growth Nears ‘Ceiling,’ Ethereum Co-Founder Buterin Says

[snip]

The Millennials

Every day there is something in the news that belongs in the humor column. Today is no exception.

More than half of Millennials expect to be millionaires someday, according to a new study

Millennials expect to make it big some day, with more than half reporting that they believe they will eventually become millionaires, according to a new study.

Despite having crushing student loans (20 percent never expect to pay them off), credit card and other debt, people born between 1982 and 2000 share a confidence when it comes to their financial outlook.

‘Young people are optimistic about the future,’ said JJ Kinahan, chief strategist for TD Ameritrade, in a statement on the company’s new report. ‘On average, survey respondents expect to land a job in their chosen field and be completely financially independent by age 25.

That’s despite the fact that 17 percent still can’t say they’re financially independent from their parents; most report getting cut off once they’ve moved out of the house.

Perhaps the optimism is due to Millennials graduating in record rates – with the overall college completion rates rising nearly 4 percent in 2017, according to a report by the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center.  [snip]

Snorting condoms does this to the brain.

These individuals must live in a state where it is legal to smoke a lot of dope.
Or the Federal Reserve will debase the dollar more than now to where a million dollars is equivalent to $15/hour, ergo about $30,000 per annum.
This batch cannot be the ones touting Socialism as the “New Normal”.

Collectivist Banking

Having a hard time making ends meet? The only way any of this will be corrected is to go back on the ‘Gold Standard’. This means getting rid of fiat money; this will severely curtail the Congress from spending what they don’t have.
Imagine them voting for this.

Inflation: Being taken for a ride by ‘official policy’…from Rico

Central Banks (for argument’s sake, we’ll use the FED here) have an ‘official policy’ of inflation. Their patron saint of economics, Maynard Keynes, told them this was the holy writ. Gospel.
– The FED, for example, has a 2% inflation rate as ‘official policy’ built into its model. Sounds vaguely benign, right?

Not if you think of it another way…taking-away 2% of the value of your money per year really adds up over time.
– It adds up to a lot, in fact.

In 1965 the new Ford Mustang cost $3,500. By 1982 it was $6,572. Today? Roughly $25,680.
– Since 1965 (53 years) that’s a seven-fold increase in nominal price.
– Since 1982 (36 years) that’s a four-fold increase in nominal price.
OR
– That’s how much the purchasing power (value) of the dollar has been debased by inflation. See how that works?

Now please consider this. When, as a matter of ‘official policy’ the currency you trade your time and life for is thus devalued/debauched, then the ‘official policy’ is that your time and your life are worth nothing and can be devalued/debauched.
OR
Flip this over, and that’s how much the makers of ‘official policy’ are then worth to the rest of us.
– Nothing.

Prevaricators

You keep hearing that inflation is low. The Government proves it by either very small COLA’s or none at all in Social Security checks and other Federal distributions. The Government likes it that way. It keeps the cost of debt repayment low. Since the Government has spent every tax dollar received and borrowed that amount to spend, low payments are a necessity. Otherwise we shall look like Venezuela. And we may yet.

Inflation….would they LIE? Say it ain’t so…from Rico

Of course governments lie. They lie all the time when it suits their purposes, and “inflation” [read: cost of living] is but one example of this mendacity.
– When a government is in debt…not just up to, but far above, it’s eyeballs then low interest means lower payments to service the debt.

No ‘official’ inflation is a good thing. For government.
– For you, not so much.

Take a good look at the chart below reflecting the US inflation rate. Recall that the FED’s ‘target rate’ is 2% (that ‘joke’ still makes me laugh every time I hear it, talk about liars!…not that a privately-owned, for-profit, bank would lie about anything mind you).
– Doesn’t sound so bad, or very scary, does it?

Except to everyone else who actually has to pay for their cost of living (instead of borrowing endlessly like government does), they know better.
–
Go here to ‘see’ what your real [read: no offishul BS] cost of living actually is:
www.chapwoodindex.com
just put down any beverages, swallow, and be sure you’re sitting down when you go to the link.

The true inflation numbers will
show you why you cannot get ahead.

Laissez le bon temps rouler

Yep! The so called REALLY good times. These are the times that let the FED and the ‘Gummint’ lie to you about how good they are.

Inflation – A Banquet of Consequences…from Rico

When Richard Nixon effectively ended the Gold Standard in 1971, he set the table for the US to enjoy ‘a banquet of consequences’ otherwise known as inflation.

The first chart illustrates the explosion of debt to GDP in trillions of USD.
– This is the ‘systemic risk’ no one wants to really discuss.

The second, the Dollar’s loss of purchasing power.
– This is the inflation that the US does not have, according to the FED and the USG.

But, prices in 2017 are 504% higher than in 1971 (using the ‘offishul’ inflation numbers; using SGS Shadowstats numbers makes the picture even worse but we won’t go there today, this is bad enough to contemplate).
– Another way to express this is that $100 in 1971 is $604 in 2017.

No, everybody is NOT ‘richer’…it just takes more money that is now worth less to buy the same exact things it did before.

Gee, thanks a bunch “Tricky Dicky”…

Collectivist Banking

Now he Keynesian banker sings a different tune.

What Yellen Says Should ‘Keep People Awake at Night’

Outgoing Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said Wednesday in testimony before Congress that the United States’ soaring debt “should be a very significant concern.”

“I would simply say that I am very worried about the sustainability of the U.S. debt trajectory,” Yellen said. “Our current debt-to-GDP ratio of about 75 percent is not frightening but it’s also not low.”

“It’s the type of thing that should keep people awake at night,” she added.

With the national debate having surpassed the $20 trillion mark, Yellen is certainly correct. National security experts have repeatedly warned the national debt is the single greatest national security threat to our country. [snip]

Yellen said the U.S economy was strong beyond the ballooning national debt, with the country near full employment and the financial system steadied by Dodd-Frank. She said that the Fed would likely raise interest rates soon to bring monetary policy back toward historic levels.

Some of the Fed’s liberal members have expressed concerns about raising rates with inflation still lagging below the Fed’s 2 percent target. Fed leaders, including Jerome Powell, Trump’s nominee for Fed chair, say they’re not sure why prices have increased a lower rate than ideal.

But Yellen, who’s favored a slow increase in rates, said rate hikes are essential to avoid creating a “boom-bust” economy. (The Hill)

Yellen has said she will retire when President Trump’s nominee, Jerome Powell, is confirmed.

Isn’t it strange she never said anything like this when Obama was in office. She screwed the interest rates into the ground, causing many seniors to suffer with no growth in their retirement plans, Social Security payments and bank savings. After which she turned around saying that inflation was low by changing the market basket items to keep the COLA raises nonexistent all the while food, clothing, gas and utilities shot up in cost.

Now she’s worried that the bubble will burst with the debt soaring and the rise in interest rates taking a huge bite out of government cash. The wonders of fiat money will never cease.

Big Spenders

We have written to this before but another rehash can’t hurt-might help keep some from getting tipped over.

Rock, Paper, Scissors…from Rico

Rock.
Gold, as an asset, does NOT change. It is everything else around it that changes.
At the end of 1970 one ounce of Gold cost just under $40; by 2001 Gold cost $200; by 2006 $600; and by 2017 just under $1300.

Paper.
The purchasing power of the Dollar has depreciated substantially since 1970, while the purchasing power of Gold has appreciated (far more than the Dollar has declined).
What’s in your wallet?

Scissors.
Another time we’ll discuss holding stocks in a brokerage via “street registration” without certification.
[read: counter party risk aka ‘if you don’t hold it, you don’t own it.’]

Collectivist Banking

So many Americans believe that the Federal Reserve is a Governmental institution because it has the word Federal in the name. You couldn’t be more wrong. It is a private banking group formed by Woodrow Wilson a Progressive President and it just plays with your money. We have a Federal institution; it is called the U.S. Treasury.

Ron Paul: “The Fed’s Massive Bubble Is Creating A World Of Economic Pain”

There shouldn’t be a Federal Reserve, but it exists, and it’s constantly creating a world of economic pain.?

Each Federal Reserve bubble must turn into a bust. It’s unavoidable.

According to the central planners, the “solution” for the bust is more creation of new money and credit. That’s the only way they can keep their “system” alive.

When the Fed’s stock market bubble burst in 2000, it responded by creating new money and credit. Lo and behold, this led directly to the next bubble that was even bigger.

When the housing bubble burst in 2008, Wall Street was bailed out by taxpayers, and TRILLIONS of new dollars were created as the “solution.”

And now, almost 10 years later, we have an even bigger bubble than 2008.

The central planners at The Fed have done it again.

How much longer will we allow this “system” to last? How much economic pain will it take to return to sound money again?

To understand this one needs to look at currency against the price of a commodity benchmark, usually gold at a given point in time. The best point is when Nixon took the Country off the Gold Standard. Gold was priced around $300USD so we can start there.
Then it took $300 dollars to buy one ounce of gold. (12 troy ounces in a pound) Now gold is selling for close to $1300USD an ounce. Did gold rise up that much or is the dollar worth less (worthless). Loking at this another way, if you have $10 bill and the government prints another $10 bill, is your money worth $20 or worth $10, each bill now worth only $5 each. One way to find out is to try to exchange the dollars for another currency. Then you will find out what they believe the value of the dollar is. We are a debtor nation, like others with a fiat currency. We have nothing to back up the dollar except the “Full Faith and Credit” for what that is worth.
An example of where this financial idiocy terminates, observe Venezuela.

Maduro faces financial nightmare in Venezuela — just in time for Halloween

With its coffers empty and its financial moves restricted by U.S. sanctions, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s government is facing a nightmarish scenario with the approach of Halloween, when a series of debt payments totaling more than $3.5 billion are due.

Analysts said the government will do everything possible to make the payments, even if it means further cuts in already reduced food imports, which would deepen shortages in a country where a majority of people cannot get three meals a day.

But a default cannot be ruled out because of the precarious state of the country’s finances, the low level of reserves and the reluctance of strategic allies like Russia and China to continue lending money to Venezuela. [snip]

But the government could also decide to suspend all imports of food and medicine, De La Cruz added.

“They have demonstrated that they do not care about the well being of the people if it risks their hold on power,” he said.

The government has averted default in recent months because of timely loans from the Russian government, which so far has always seemed ready to provide the millions of dollars needed by its foundering Latin American ally. [snip]

“The Russians are not very happy,” Dallen said, noting a report in June that Venezuela had failed to make a $1 billion payment due to Moscow.

One billion dollars may not look like much in the United States, but it’s a lot for Russia, said Dallen, who often consults with Washington officials on Venezuelan affairs.

The Russians may well be approaching the point of concluding that continuing to invest in Venezuela is too risky, he added.

These ending ain’t pretty, usually finishing off with lots of gunfire and blood.

Collectivist Banking

It is instructive to note which countries are buying up gold (and other metals) and who is playing with paper. Note that the Uited States isn’t among the buyers of metals. We are a debtor nation; that places us in a subservient position.

Watching the obvious and blatant monkey-hammering of the precious metals (Gold and Silver) on the CRIMEX….er, COMEX this week one might be unaware that the unbacked-paper games [read: naked shorts] being played in Chicago to manipulate ‘spot’ prices downward don’t matter much to a number of sovereign nations.
– In fact, almost everyone but the insider option traders of CME’s paper market are ignoring said shenanigans.

There are no Chinese buyers this week…and no Chinese market…because the entire country is closed to celebrate their annual “Golden Week” holiday, which makes the orchestration of drive-by paper raids on the metals possible in Chicago.
– The Chinese return from holiday and are open for business again on 09 October. Watch the precious metals price action after that.

It’s not just the Chinese who value Gold, we all know the Russians and the Indians do, too.
– But those ‘conservative’ Germans are demanding Gold at a pace that outstrips the Chinese.

Surprised? You should not be.
– The Germans have had some very unhappy experiences with inflation and valueless/worthless fiat currency, and they remember those hard, unpleasant, lessons quite well.

Observations

The job losses due to the storms will affect the service industry for some time to come as cleanup does take time.
What remains to be seen is the pickup is the construction and related industries. There should be a short term boom there.

US lost 33,000 jobs in Sept, vs 90,000 jobs increase expected

Hurricanes Harvey and Irma damaged not only Texas and Florida but also the U.S. jobs picture, as payrolls fell by 33,000 in September. That drop came even as the unemployment rate fell to a 16-year low of 4.2 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday.

The jobs loss was the first monthly decline in seven years, when the economy was still pulling out of the Great Recession.

Even with the surprise jobs number, the closely watched hourly wages figure jumped higher, to an annualized rate of 2.9 percent.

 Economists surveyed by Reuters expected payroll growth of 90,000 in September, compared with 169,000 in August. The unemployment rate was expected to hold steady at 4.4 percent. It declined even as the labor-force participation rate rose to 63.1 percent, its highest level all year and the best reading since March 2014.

“The lousy returns from the September jobs report will make little impression on observers, who essentially gave the labor market a free pass due to the impact of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma,” said Curt Long, chief economist at the National Association of Federally Insured Credit Unions. [snip]

The BLS reported that average hourly earnings were up by 12 cents on the month to $26.55, equating to a 2.9 percent gain for the year. That’s well above the 2 percent target the Federal Reserve sets for healthy inflation growth, meaning that the central bank is more likely to approve another interest rate hike at its December meeting.